BAGHDAD – Already pressured by the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran faces a major test in managing Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a formidable opponent who beat Tehran’s longtime allies to achieve a shock victory in Iraq’s parliamentary election.
But if Tehran overplays its hand by squeezing al-Sadr out of a coalition government dominated by its allies, it risks losing influence by provoking conflict between Iranian-backed Shiites and those loyal to al-Sadr.
He swept Iraq’s parliamentary election by tapping into growing public resentment directed at Iran and what some voters say is a corrupt political elite that has failed to help the poor.
But Iran is unlikely to relinquish influence in Iraq, its most important ally in the Middle East, and will push for a coalition that will preserve its interests.
“Iran will do everything in its power to remain strong in Iraq and to apply pressure,” said independent Iraqi analyst Wathiq al-Hashimi. “It’s a very critical situation.”
Before the election, Iran publicly stated it would not allow al-Sadr’s bloc — an unlikely alliance of Shiites, communists and other secular groups — to govern.